A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
